Probabilities

“The 50–50–90 rule: anytime you have a 50–50 chance of getting something right, there’s a 90% probability you’ll get it wrong.”

• Andy Rooney (1919–2011), American radio and TV writer

Life is full of things that test probability.

For healthcare, I’m a member of an HMO.

At a visit to my primary care provider a couple years ago for something unrelated, as I was about to leave, he commented, “By the way, your risk of having a heart attack or stroke within the next 10 years is close to 20%.”

My ears perked up.

“Oh,” I said. “What do you recommend?”

“Statins.”

Out of curiosity, I asked, “Do quite a few of your patients take them?”

He nodded.

“I’m on them,” he said. “I have both of my parents on them.” (He is somewhat younger than I).

“Thank you,” I said. “I’ll give it some thought.”

And I did. When I got home, I took a couple online tests on the risk of future stroke or heart attack. One was sanctioned by the American College of Cardiology.

I plugged in my age, BP, known serum lipid levels, etc.

Sure enough. My risk of having a heart attack or stroke was close to 20%. I was a definite candidate…